Even if you are not an avid news follower, you could not escape the constant coverage of the events unfolding around Ukraine these last two weeks. Tensions have not been higher in the region since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by the Russian Federation. That confrontation drove President Vladimir Putin’s popularity higher as he pushed a nationalistic rhetoric to the Russian citizens. However, it seems he is no longer satisfied and is willing to risk much to gain very little. Is challenging Ukraine worth inflaming NATO? To Putin it is and he has a variety of motives to justify his aggression toward Ukraine.
Let’s begin with the simplest motive: Ukraine is Russia’s neighbor. Like any reasonable head of state, Putin wants to ensure that his neighbors are stable, friendly, or at the very least, weaker than his own state. More so, annexing your neighbors into your state fixes all the above concerns. This used to be the case, as Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until the fall of the USSR in 1991. Ukraine has managed to hold onto its independence since then, but Russia undoubtedly has ambitions to reclaim the former size and glory of the USSR. By provoking Ukraine, Putin is not only able to provoke the flame of nationalism in Russia but show the strength of Russia as they try to manifest to the world they are still a great power.
Arguably, it may be more important to Putin to show his own strength in order to consolidate his power within the Kremlin and maintain support among the people. Vladmir Putin has served as either the President or Prime Minister of Russia since 1999. He has managed to hold onto such powers by being a calculating, sometimes conniving, master of politics. After tossing aside the two-term Presidential limit, Putin will be up for yet another re-election in 2024, just a short two years away. His performance of strength in Ukraine shows the Russian people they still need their fearless leader to shepherd them into a new age of Russian glory.
Finally, the big, bureaucratic, elephant in the room needs to be addressed when it comes to European international affairs, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The notion that Ukraine may someday join NATO keeps the Kremlin up at night. It would be a nightmare if a forming member of the USSR were to join the West’s intergovernmental military alliance. Such a move would illustrate the decline of Russian influence in the region and would be an embarrassment for Putin if it happened under his watch. Aside from the optics and politics of a Ukraine membership into NATO, Russia wants Ukraine to remain obligation free as to remain a buffer between Russia and NATO. Having a vast territory between itself and its European adversaries keeps Russia safer from invasion, influence, and interference in their domestic affairs.
All the above motives reveal that Russian interest in Ukraine will not fail to wane in the future. The Russian Federation and Vladimir Putin have a vested interest in its neighbor when it comes to the prosperity of their future. To that point, Ukraine will continue to be at the forefront of international affairs in the coming decade.