Europe

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has lost more than 19,300 soldiers, 722 tanks, 152 plans and thousands of other military vehicles and equipment since their nefarious invasion of Ukraine. These figures, coupled with a disappointing grasp of land objectives, paints a picture of Russian military failure the likes of which are embarrassing for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Something needed to change from the Russian perspective as we pass day 45 of the invasion and that change has come in the form of General Alexander Dvornikov. The man who is viewed as a national hero or a war criminal, depending on who you ask. Either way, Russia’s new commander will be looking to implement the tactics that made him famous in Syria to the Ukrainian invasion.

General Dvornikov was a Russian commander during Syria’s civil war, working closely with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help carry out widespread and indiscriminate bombardments of Syrian civilians, neighborhoods and hospitals. Reports estimate that over 25,000 Syrian civilians were murdered by Russian air strikes between 2015-2022 which General Dvornikov played an integral role in. Under General Dvornikov’s command, Russian forces in Syria were known for crushing dissent in part by destroying cities, lobbing artillery and dropping crudely made barrel bombs. For his service in Syria, he returned with honors and was claimed a “hero of the Russian Federation”.

It is probable that General Dvornikov will use some of the same scorched earth tactics in Ukraine that made him successful in Syria. This means residential areas and any infrastructure buildings will be ripe targets for air and ground bombardments. This is not good news for Ukrainian civilians who have already been displaced by the tens of millions, essentially creating a new migrant crisis for Europe. Additionally, more war crimes carried out by the Russian military can be expected as indiscriminate bombardments most likely will increase under Dvornikov’s command.

Fittingly, General Dvornikov was already in command of Russia’s South and Eastern forces in Ukraine before this promotion so his first step will be to consolidate the retreating Russian forces into his own armies. The Russian hope is that General Dvornikov can unify the Russian forces under a single command with a clear objective to increase morale, logistical planning, and overall battle effectiveness.

Along with General Dvornikov’s appointment, a new grand strategy is being implemented for the war in Ukraine. The Russian military has failed to conquer major cities in central Ukraine like Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, and the Ukrainian government still stands strong. This is due to several factors, including: low soldier morale, logistical breakdowns, lack of leadership, and an underestimation of Ukraine and the West’s support. The result: Russian forces have now withdrawn to deploy to the Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and to execute a new battle plan.

The main military objective for Russia has likely shifted to try and complete control of the Donbas region. Donbas broadly refers to Ukraine’s Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk which have been disputed for years. Controlling these areas helps Russia establish a land bridge between Crimea and Russia while giving their military a much-needed victory. Once Donbas is under control, Russia will be able to start planning a push West, deeper into Ukraine and will most likely try to encircle the Ukrainian army. Essentially, Russia must gain control of the East before pushing into Central Ukraine again.

For although Ukraine should be optimistic about the recent Russian retreat, it should start preparing for phase two of the war. A phase that is expected to bring with it a more organized brutality as Russia re-organizes in the East under new leadership.

One of the world’s most famous political philosophers once wrote that it is sometimes, “a very wise thing to simulate madness.”. That man was Niccolò Machiavelli and even though those words dried on the paper in the 16^th century, the use of such political maneuvering is still practiced in modern international affairs. Using such tactics has benefited leaders throughout history. Could Russian President Vladmir Putin be following the footsteps of acting like a ‘madman’ to achieve his goals or has he quite literally lost his mind?

The Madman theory is when a leader acts so irrational and volatile that other leaders avoid confrontation because they fear provoking an unpredictable reaction from the ‘madman’. U.S. President Richard Nixon is the leader most commonly associated with the political theory. In his book, the President’s Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman, admitted that Nixon wanted the North Vietnamese to believe that he would do anything to stop the war in Vietnam and that he could not be controlled when he was angry. President Nixon let it slip that he was considering deploying nuclear weapons in Vietnam and shortly after the North Vietnamese came to the table to negotiate an end to the war. Some experts also assert that U.S. President Donald Trump utilized the madman theory in his foreign relations. For instance, during negotiations with South Korea, President Trump told his diplomats to portray him as a “crazy guy” who could pull out of the negotiations at any moment. An agreement was eventually reached, and the success or failure of the ploy is debated. Another international example of such gimmicks is when the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s, Kim Jong-Un, launches nuclear weapons nonchalantly in defiance of the international community. Consequently, no invasion of North Korea has occurred under his leadership; almost validating his tactics. As the military strategist Herman Kahn described in his book, to, “look a little crazy” might be an effective way to persuade an adversary to stand down.

The madman theory has never been utilized or associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Up until the last week, experts and politicians have always seen Putin as a calculating, intelligent, and rational leader who always planned a few steps ahead. The invasion of Ukraine has brought to light a new side of Putin, one that makes the world a more dangerous place. Although some predicted that Russia would eventually try to take back the disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, not many saw such a sudden invasion into the whole of Ukraine and a focus on their capital city, Kyiv. At the start of the invasion Putin gave a speech trying to justify his actions that showed an emotional man monologuing about past glory, made-up genocides, and a whole host of questionable statements. Seemingly out of touch, he would go on to ask the Ukrainian military to revolt against their own leaders, who he called Nazis and drug addicts who use their elderly as human shields. It has not just been his words that have raised eyebrows, but his actions as well. Most notably, he put Russia’s nuclear forces on alert for the first time in their history setting off alarm bells throughout the world. Such a swift change in personality raises the question of whether the Russian leader’s mental state is declining or if he is playing politics.

Why in this specific conflict would Putin use the madman political theory? Well, he understands that the entire West is essentially against him, and it may be one of the only cards he has to play to keep them at bay. If Putin portrays himself as an unpredictable maniac, then NATO, E.U., and whoever else would have to be wary of pushing him too far. This means that sanctions would have to be curtailed to an extent, military action restricted, and whatever happens he could not be placed into a corner. It would be foolish to force a maniac into a position with no escape and a finger on the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Consequently, this gives Putin breathing room and leaves more options on the table to maneuver in this conflict. Likewise, if Putin is viewed as unpredictable, then it makes the West more cautious in any action they take. For example, NATO is much less likely to issue a no-fly zone in Ukraine if they cannot predict whether Russia will uphold such an issue, which would then further escalations. Lastly, employing the madman theory makes it more likely that Ukraine will negotiate a way out of the war, conceding land or power, just to appease the perceived lunatic. Putin may well have thought all this through and has been playing the part to perfection.

However, we can also not count out the terrifying idea that one of the world’s most powerful leaders mental state is quickly deteriorating. Vladmir Putin will turn 70 in October and to believe his mind is what it was when he was a KGB agent would be unwise. Rumors are spreading that the aging leader has isolated himself in the face of the pandemic and is now out of touch. Even worse, he may be surrounding himself with ‘yes men’ who do not demonstrate contrary views or opinions. Thus, leading to confirmation bias that just supports his already established beliefs and judgments. Advanced age, isolation, and a lack of dissension could be a recipe for a rapidly declining mental state.

It may be political maneuvering or Putin may just be losing his mind. Not even the experts can be sure at this point. The next few weeks will hopefully shine some light on Putin’s decision making. Whereas for now, we can only speculate and hope the consequences of Putin’s actions do not become even more dire.  

Even if you are not an avid news follower, you could not escape the constant coverage of the events unfolding around Ukraine these last two weeks. Tensions have not been higher in the region since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by the Russian Federation. That confrontation drove President Vladimir Putin’s popularity higher as he pushed a nationalistic rhetoric to the Russian citizens. However, it seems he is no longer satisfied and is willing to risk much to gain very little. Is challenging Ukraine worth inflaming NATO? To Putin it is and he has a variety of motives to justify his aggression toward Ukraine.  

Let’s begin with the simplest motive: Ukraine is Russia’s neighbor. Like any reasonable head of state, Putin wants to ensure that his neighbors are stable, friendly, or at the very least, weaker than his own state. More so, annexing your neighbors into your state fixes all the above concerns. This used to be the case, as Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until the fall of the USSR in 1991. Ukraine has managed to hold onto its independence since then, but Russia undoubtedly has ambitions to reclaim the former size and glory of the USSR. By provoking Ukraine, Putin is not only able to provoke the flame of nationalism in Russia but show the strength of Russia as they try to manifest to the world they are still a great power.

Arguably, it may be more important to Putin to show his own strength in order to consolidate his power within the Kremlin and maintain support among the people. Vladmir Putin has served as either the President or Prime Minister of Russia since 1999. He has managed to hold onto such powers by being a calculating, sometimes conniving, master of politics. After tossing aside the two-term Presidential limit, Putin will be up for yet another re-election in 2024, just a short two years away. His performance of strength in Ukraine shows the Russian people they still need their fearless leader to shepherd them into a new age of Russian glory.

Finally, the big, bureaucratic, elephant in the room needs to be addressed when it comes to European international affairs, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The notion that Ukraine may someday join NATO keeps the Kremlin up at night. It would be a nightmare if a forming member of the USSR were to join the West’s intergovernmental military alliance. Such a move would illustrate the decline of Russian influence in the region and would be an embarrassment for Putin if it happened under his watch. Aside from the optics and politics of a Ukraine membership into NATO, Russia wants Ukraine to remain obligation free as to remain a buffer between Russia and NATO. Having a vast territory between itself and its European adversaries keeps Russia safer from invasion, influence, and interference in their domestic affairs.

All the above motives reveal that Russian interest in Ukraine will not fail to wane in the future. The Russian Federation and Vladimir Putin have a vested interest in its neighbor when it comes to the prosperity of their future. To that point, Ukraine will continue to be at the forefront of international affairs in the coming decade.

Ever-present, authentic, and always pragmatic Angela Merkel is stepping down from her position as the Chancellor of Germany after 16 years. Germany’s development and modernization in the last few decades all took place under her guiding hand and her legacy as a giant in European politics will never be forgotten. Yet, even with high approval ratings the writing was on the wall and the Chancellor announced she would not seek re-election in the 2021 German federal elections. In steps Olaf Scholz, a center-left social democrat with plans to revive progressive policies all while ushering Germany into a new era that aims to be greener, more digitalized, and progressive; at the same time as navigating a modern economy.

Even though Olaf Scholz hails from a different political party than Angela Merkel she helped groom him for leadership of Germany. Olaf served as Merkel’s Vice-Chancellor for years before recently being elected as her replacement. Merkel was also generous enough to invite Olaf to accompany her to a Group of 20 meeting in Rome in October to introduce him to world leaders like President Joe Biden.[1] Contrary to elections in the United States of America, this made for a harmonious change of power and a sense of pride for German citizens. This effortless transition of power is also aided by many seeing Mr. Scholz as a continuation of Angela Merkel. Scholz calm, steady demeanor and a willingness to compromise echo’s the governing style of his predecessor and sets him up for success.[2]

While many see Scholz as a Merkel 2.0 of sorts, they also have their differences. Maybe most notably are their stances on NATO and foreign policy overall. With the constant threat of Russia invading parts of Ukraine and challenging NATO strength, Scholz may opt for stronger relations with the United States. For Scholz, this in turn will hopefully strengthen the United States support for NATO as relations had cooled under President Trump. Likewise, the incoming Chancellor faces the task of sustaining European Union (E.U.) cohesion. Germany is the de facto leaders of the E.U. as the organization is still reeling from the loss of United Kingdom in 2020. As the largest democracy in Europe that also boast a powerhouse of an economy, members of the E.U. and governments around the world look toward Germany to lead Europe into a prosperous future. Angela Merkel was able to heed the call for more than 16 years and now that monumental task falls on Olaf Scholz shoulders.  

To help readers get a better understanding of Olaf Scholz you can find a partial list his domestic agenda below:

-Raise the minimum wage.

-Phase out coal power by 2030.

-Achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

-Cut bureaucratic red tape.

-Hold off on implementing new taxes.

-Attract skilled migrant workers.

-Construct 400,000 new homes a year.

-Re-impose a wealth tax.

-Legalize cannabis for private consumption.[3][4]

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[1] Bennhold, Katrinn, and Melissa Eddy. “Germany’s Merkel Hands over Chancellor’s Office to Scholz.” New York Times, December 8, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/08/world/germany-scholz-merkel.

[2] Schmitz, Rob. “What You Need to Know about Germany’s New Chancellor and Coalition Government.” NPR. NPR, December 8, 2021. https://www.npr.org/2021/12/08/1062130622/germany-new-chancellor-olaf-scholz-coalition-government.

[3] Bennhold, Katrinn, and Melissa Eddy. “Germany’s Merkel Hands over Chancellor’s Office to Scholz.” New York Times, December 8, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/08/world/germany-scholz-merkel.

[4] Oltermann, Philip. “Olaf Scholz: ‘Merit in Society Must Not Be Limited to Top-Earners’.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, September 8, 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/08/olaf-scholz-merit-society-not-be-limited-top-earners-germany-election.