Jeremy Lee

Russian Invasion Forces in Ukraine Under New Leadership and Are Shifting Battle Plans

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has lost more than 19,300 soldiers, 722 tanks, 152 plans and thousands of other military vehicles and equipment since their nefarious invasion of Ukraine. These figures, coupled with a disappointing grasp of land objectives, paints a picture of Russian military failure the likes of which are embarrassing for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Something needed to change from the Russian perspective as we pass day 45 of the invasion and that change has come in the form of General Alexander Dvornikov. The man who is viewed as a national hero or a war criminal, depending on who you ask. Either way, Russia’s new commander will be looking to implement the tactics that made him famous in Syria to the Ukrainian invasion.

General Dvornikov was a Russian commander during Syria’s civil war, working closely with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help carry out widespread and indiscriminate bombardments of Syrian civilians, neighborhoods and hospitals. Reports estimate that over 25,000 Syrian civilians were murdered by Russian air strikes between 2015-2022 which General Dvornikov played an integral role in. Under General Dvornikov’s command, Russian forces in Syria were known for crushing dissent in part by destroying cities, lobbing artillery and dropping crudely made barrel bombs. For his service in Syria, he returned with honors and was claimed a “hero of the Russian Federation”.

It is probable that General Dvornikov will use some of the same scorched earth tactics in Ukraine that made him successful in Syria. This means residential areas and any infrastructure buildings will be ripe targets for air and ground bombardments. This is not good news for Ukrainian civilians who have already been displaced by the tens of millions, essentially creating a new migrant crisis for Europe. Additionally, more war crimes carried out by the Russian military can be expected as indiscriminate bombardments most likely will increase under Dvornikov’s command.

Fittingly, General Dvornikov was already in command of Russia’s South and Eastern forces in Ukraine before this promotion so his first step will be to consolidate the retreating Russian forces into his own armies. The Russian hope is that General Dvornikov can unify the Russian forces under a single command with a clear objective to increase morale, logistical planning, and overall battle effectiveness.

Along with General Dvornikov’s appointment, a new grand strategy is being implemented for the war in Ukraine. The Russian military has failed to conquer major cities in central Ukraine like Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, and the Ukrainian government still stands strong. This is due to several factors, including: low soldier morale, logistical breakdowns, lack of leadership, and an underestimation of Ukraine and the West’s support. The result: Russian forces have now withdrawn to deploy to the Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and to execute a new battle plan.

The main military objective for Russia has likely shifted to try and complete control of the Donbas region. Donbas broadly refers to Ukraine’s Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk which have been disputed for years. Controlling these areas helps Russia establish a land bridge between Crimea and Russia while giving their military a much-needed victory. Once Donbas is under control, Russia will be able to start planning a push West, deeper into Ukraine and will most likely try to encircle the Ukrainian army. Essentially, Russia must gain control of the East before pushing into Central Ukraine again.

For although Ukraine should be optimistic about the recent Russian retreat, it should start preparing for phase two of the war. A phase that is expected to bring with it a more organized brutality as Russia re-organizes in the East under new leadership.

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Putin

Has Putin’s Mental Health Deteriorated or is he Simply Practicing The Madman Theory?

One of the world’s most famous political philosophers once wrote that it is sometimes, “a very wise thing to simulate madness.”. That man was Niccolò Machiavelli and even though those words dried on the paper in the 16th century, the use of such political maneuvering is still practiced in modern international affairs. Using such tactics has benefited leaders throughout history. Could Russian President Vladmir Putin be following the footsteps of acting like a ‘madman’ to achieve his goals or has he quite literally lost his mind?

The Madman theory is when a leader acts so irrational and volatile that other leaders avoid confrontation because they fear provoking an unpredictable reaction from the ‘madman’. U.S. President Richard Nixon is the leader most commonly associated with the political theory. In his book, the President’s Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman, admitted that Nixon wanted the North Vietnamese to believe that he would do anything to stop the war in Vietnam and that he could not be controlled when he was angry. President Nixon let it slip that he was considering deploying nuclear weapons in Vietnam and shortly after the North Vietnamese came to the table to negotiate an end to the war. Some experts also assert that U.S. President Donald Trump utilized the madman theory in his foreign relations. For instance, during negotiations with South Korea, President Trump told his diplomats to portray him as a “crazy guy” who could pull out of the negotiations at any moment. An agreement was eventually reached, and the success or failure of the ploy is debated. Another international example of such gimmicks is when the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s, Kim Jong-Un, launches nuclear weapons nonchalantly in defiance of the international community. Consequently, no invasion of North Korea has occurred under his leadership; almost validating his tactics. As the military strategist Herman Kahn described in his book, to, “look a little crazy” might be an effective way to persuade an adversary to stand down.

The madman theory has never been utilized or associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Up until the last week, experts and politicians have always seen Putin as a calculating, intelligent, and rational leader who always planned a few steps ahead. The invasion of Ukraine has brought to light a new side of Putin, one that makes the world a more dangerous place. Although some predicted that Russia would eventually try to take back the disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, not many saw such a sudden invasion into the whole of Ukraine and a focus on their capital city, Kyiv. At the start of the invasion Putin gave a speech trying to justify his actions that showed an emotional man monologuing about past glory, made-up genocides, and a whole host of questionable statements. Seemingly out of touch, he would go on to ask the Ukrainian military to revolt against their own leaders, who he called Nazis and drug addicts who use their elderly as human shields. It has not just been his words that have raised eyebrows, but his actions as well. Most notably, he put Russia’s nuclear forces on alert for the first time in their history setting off alarm bells throughout the world. Such a swift change in personality raises the question of whether the Russian leader’s mental state is declining or if he is playing politics.

Why in this specific conflict would Putin use the madman political theory? Well, he understands that the entire West is essentially against him, and it may be one of the only cards he has to play to keep them at bay. If Putin portrays himself as an unpredictable maniac, then NATO, E.U., and whoever else would have to be wary of pushing him too far. This means that sanctions would have to be curtailed to an extent, military action restricted, and whatever happens he could not be placed into a corner. It would be foolish to force a maniac into a position with no escape and a finger on the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Consequently, this gives Putin breathing room and leaves more options on the table to maneuver in this conflict. Likewise, if Putin is viewed as unpredictable, then it makes the West more cautious in any action they take. For example, NATO is much less likely to issue a no-fly zone in Ukraine if they cannot predict whether Russia will uphold such an issue, which would then further escalations. Lastly, employing the madman theory makes it more likely that Ukraine will negotiate a way out of the war, conceding land or power, just to appease the perceived lunatic. Putin may well have thought all this through and has been playing the part to perfection.

However, we can also not count out the terrifying idea that one of the world’s most powerful leaders mental state is quickly deteriorating. Vladmir Putin will turn 70 in October and to believe his mind is what it was when he was a KGB agent would be unwise. Rumors are spreading that the aging leader has isolated himself in the face of the pandemic and is now out of touch. Even worse, he may be surrounding himself with ‘yes men’ who do not demonstrate contrary views or opinions. Thus, leading to confirmation bias that just supports his already established beliefs and judgments. Advanced age, isolation, and a lack of dissension could be a recipe for a rapidly declining mental state.

It may be political maneuvering or Putin may just be losing his mind. Not even the experts can be sure at this point. The next few weeks will hopefully shine some light on Putin’s decision making. Whereas for now, we can only speculate and hope the consequences of Putin’s actions do not become even more dire.  

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Honduras

Honduras’ ex-President and U.S. Ally Now Faces Extradition to U.S.A Following Drug Trafficking Arrest

The never-ending War on Drugs claimed another casualty last week as the former President of Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, was arrested at his home and is now facing extradition to the United States. His brother Tony has already been convicted and sentenced to life in prison for smuggling more than 185 tons of cocaine into the United States. This new development came just days after prosecutors in the Southern District of New York issued an arrest and extradition request for the ex-leader on charges of drug trafficking. The prosecutors allege that for the past 18 years, Hernández, “participated in a violent drug-trafficking conspiracy” to ship hundreds of tons of cocaine to the U.S. via Honduras and received “millions of dollars in bribes and proceeds” in return. This all came to light in recent years with witnesses in federal courtrooms pointing the finger at the ex-President. One witness quoted Hernández bragging he was, “going to stuff the drugs up the gringos’ noses, and they’re never even going to know it.”. He has vowed to clear his name of all charges.

What makes this particular case so intriguing is that Juan Orlando Hernández has been lauded as a staunch U.S. ally and an enemy of drugs for the past two U.S. presidential administrations. In 2017, then U.S. Vice President Joe Biden praised Hernández for his progress in improving security, fighting corruption, and preserving the rule of law in Honduras. Years later President Trump was quoted as saying, “…President Hernández is working with the U.S. very closely.” and, “We’re stopping drugs at a level that has never happened.”. The political theatre did not only reach into Honduras foreign relations but also extended into Hernández’s domestic policies. The alleged talked tough on drugs in public speeches throughout his presidency. Likewise, publicly he supported a constitutional amendment to authorize the extradition of drug traffickers. While privately, he was promising to protect his drug trafficking allies in return for bribes and support. U.S. prosecutors claim that Hernández received millions in bribes to go toward his election campaigns. In return he protected high level cartel bosses within the Sinaloa drug cartel, including Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán.

How could such a major player in the drug trafficking world not only get overlooked but praised as a friend and ally? Juan Orlando Hernández was able to play the game through his position of power and political maneuvering. Both the Biden and Trump administrations saw his cooperation on reducing the flow of migrants from Honduras to the U.S. as a top priority. By working together with the Honduras President on this issue both U.S. Presidents were able to score domestic political points with the U.S. population. Other issues, like drug trafficking, took a backseat to the hot political issue of illegal immigration on the southern border of the U.S.

Additionally, arresting and extraditing a sitting Central American President is a bit more complicated than a disgraced former President. Hernández just recently lost his re-election campaign as he fell out of favor with the local populace. Many citizens accused Hernández of corruption and misrule and voted to replace him in November. This provided the U.S. federal courts the opening to sweep in and apprehend the ex-President. To make things worse, hundreds of Hondurans rushed to celebrate his downfall and chant “…you’re going to New York.” as he was taken into custody. Many of the revelers see the extradition to the U.S. as a way for Hernández to finally face justice.

Those citizens voted in the first female President of Honduras, Xiomara Castro, a leftwing politician to replace Hernández. Castro has the support of the U.S. and the Biden administration. U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris attended her inauguration and reiterated the plan to keep warm relations with Honduras. Meanwhile, Honduras’s new Vice President Salvador Nasralla openly called their country a narco state and acknowledge that drug traffickers are, “…are in the institutional structures of the country, in the ministries, in Congress, in the supreme court.”. This type of self-awareness bodes well for Castro’s government as it now faces the challenges and tribulations of tackling the drug problem in Honduras.

Stott, Michael, and Christine Murray. “Ex-Honduras President’s Arrest Puts US War on Drugs into Focus.” Financial Times. Financial Times, February 18, 2022. https://www.ft.com/content/af3d85a8-c10a-46da-a217-328c80e74116.

Khalidi, Aliza Kassim, Karol Suarez, and Fernando Del Rincón. “Ex-Honduras President Agrees to Extradition to the US.” CNN. Cable News Network, February 15, 2022. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/americas/honduras-hernandez-president-extradition-us-intl/index.html.

Suazo, Joan, and Maria Abi-habib. “U.S. Requests Extradition of Former Honduran President.” The New York Times. The New York Times, February 15, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/world/americas/honduras-president-extradition.html.

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Ukraine

Why is Russia so Interested in Ukraine?

Even if you are not an avid news follower, you could not escape the constant coverage of the events unfolding around Ukraine these last two weeks. Tensions have not been higher in the region since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 by the Russian Federation. That confrontation drove President Vladimir Putin’s popularity higher as he pushed a nationalistic rhetoric to the Russian citizens. However, it seems he is no longer satisfied and is willing to risk much to gain very little. Is challenging Ukraine worth inflaming NATO? To Putin it is and he has a variety of motives to justify his aggression toward Ukraine.  

Let’s begin with the simplest motive: Ukraine is Russia’s neighbor. Like any reasonable head of state, Putin wants to ensure that his neighbors are stable, friendly, or at the very least, weaker than his own state. More so, annexing your neighbors into your state fixes all the above concerns. This used to be the case, as Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until the fall of the USSR in 1991. Ukraine has managed to hold onto its independence since then, but Russia undoubtedly has ambitions to reclaim the former size and glory of the USSR. By provoking Ukraine, Putin is not only able to provoke the flame of nationalism in Russia but show the strength of Russia as they try to manifest to the world they are still a great power.

Arguably, it may be more important to Putin to show his own strength in order to consolidate his power within the Kremlin and maintain support among the people. Vladmir Putin has served as either the President or Prime Minister of Russia since 1999. He has managed to hold onto such powers by being a calculating, sometimes conniving, master of politics. After tossing aside the two-term Presidential limit, Putin will be up for yet another re-election in 2024, just a short two years away. His performance of strength in Ukraine shows the Russian people they still need their fearless leader to shepherd them into a new age of Russian glory.

Finally, the big, bureaucratic, elephant in the room needs to be addressed when it comes to European international affairs, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The notion that Ukraine may someday join NATO keeps the Kremlin up at night. It would be a nightmare if a forming member of the USSR were to join the West’s intergovernmental military alliance. Such a move would illustrate the decline of Russian influence in the region and would be an embarrassment for Putin if it happened under his watch. Aside from the optics and politics of a Ukraine membership into NATO, Russia wants Ukraine to remain obligation free as to remain a buffer between Russia and NATO. Having a vast territory between itself and its European adversaries keeps Russia safer from invasion, influence, and interference in their domestic affairs.

All the above motives reveal that Russian interest in Ukraine will not fail to wane in the future. The Russian Federation and Vladimir Putin have a vested interest in its neighbor when it comes to the prosperity of their future. To that point, Ukraine will continue to be at the forefront of international affairs in the coming decade.

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Germany

Meet Germany’s New Leader: Olaf Scholz

Ever-present, authentic, and always pragmatic Angela Merkel is stepping down from her position as the Chancellor of Germany after 16 years. Germany’s development and modernization in the last few decades all took place under her guiding hand and her legacy as a giant in European politics will never be forgotten. Yet, even with high approval ratings the writing was on the wall and the Chancellor announced she would not seek re-election in the 2021 German federal elections. In steps Olaf Scholz, a center-left social democrat with plans to revive progressive policies all while ushering Germany into a new era that aims to be greener, more digitalized, and progressive; at the same time as navigating a modern economy.

Even though Olaf Scholz hails from a different political party than Angela Merkel she helped groom him for leadership of Germany. Olaf served as Merkel’s Vice-Chancellor for years before recently being elected as her replacement. Merkel was also generous enough to invite Olaf to accompany her to a Group of 20 meeting in Rome in October to introduce him to world leaders like President Joe Biden.[1] Contrary to elections in the United States of America, this made for a harmonious change of power and a sense of pride for German citizens. This effortless transition of power is also aided by many seeing Mr. Scholz as a continuation of Angela Merkel. Scholz calm, steady demeanor and a willingness to compromise echo’s the governing style of his predecessor and sets him up for success.[2]

While many see Scholz as a Merkel 2.0 of sorts, they also have their differences. Maybe most notably are their stances on NATO and foreign policy overall. With the constant threat of Russia invading parts of Ukraine and challenging NATO strength, Scholz may opt for stronger relations with the United States. For Scholz, this in turn will hopefully strengthen the United States support for NATO as relations had cooled under President Trump. Likewise, the incoming Chancellor faces the task of sustaining European Union (E.U.) cohesion. Germany is the de facto leaders of the E.U. as the organization is still reeling from the loss of United Kingdom in 2020. As the largest democracy in Europe that also boast a powerhouse of an economy, members of the E.U. and governments around the world look toward Germany to lead Europe into a prosperous future. Angela Merkel was able to heed the call for more than 16 years and now that monumental task falls on Olaf Scholz shoulders.  

To help readers get a better understanding of Olaf Scholz you can find a partial list his domestic agenda below:

-Raise the minimum wage.

-Phase out coal power by 2030.

-Achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.

-Cut bureaucratic red tape.

-Hold off on implementing new taxes.

-Attract skilled migrant workers.

-Construct 400,000 new homes a year.

-Re-impose a wealth tax.

-Legalize cannabis for private consumption.[3][4]


[1] Bennhold, Katrinn, and Melissa Eddy. “Germany’s Merkel Hands over Chancellor’s Office to Scholz.” New York Times, December 8, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/08/world/germany-scholz-merkel.

[2] Schmitz, Rob. “What You Need to Know about Germany’s New Chancellor and Coalition Government.” NPR. NPR, December 8, 2021. https://www.npr.org/2021/12/08/1062130622/germany-new-chancellor-olaf-scholz-coalition-government.

[3] Bennhold, Katrinn, and Melissa Eddy. “Germany’s Merkel Hands over Chancellor’s Office to Scholz.” New York Times, December 8, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/12/08/world/germany-scholz-merkel.

[4] Oltermann, Philip. “Olaf Scholz: ‘Merit in Society Must Not Be Limited to Top-Earners’.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, September 8, 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/08/olaf-scholz-merit-society-not-be-limited-top-earners-germany-election.

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Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping Seals China’s Future With His Historical Resolution

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launched President Xi Jinping Historical Resolution during their latest meeting, cementing his legacy in the People’s Republic of China and ensuring he remains in power for years to come. Historical is an accurate term since it is only the third time such a resolution has been implemented in the country’s history. The first Historical Resolution, passed in 1945, helped China’s founding father Mae Zedong consolidate his leadership so he had full authority in creating a new government.[1] The second Historical Resolution, passed in 1981, was also implemented by a giant in China’s history, Deng Xiaoping. In his resolution, Deng openly criticized Mae Zedong’s Cultural Revolution and paved the way for China’s economic reforms.[2] In both instances, the resolutions were used to open a new era for the Chinese government and promote the respective leader’s powers.

Xi Jinping has read his famous predecessor’s political playbooks and is following in their footsteps. His document not only addresses China’s key achievements in the past, but it paints a picture of the future. One where Xi Jinping plays a major role. The resolution’s passing comes only 3 years after China scrapped the two-term limit on the presidency, essentially allowing Xi to remain President for life. His Historical Resolution capitalizes on the opportunity by pledging to, “resolutely uphold Comrade Xi Jinping’s core position on the Central Committee and in the Party as a whole and uphold the Central Committee’ authority and its centralized, unified leadership to ensure that all Party members act in unison”.[3] Again, this is a culmination of political moves made by Xi over the last few years. Recently, he added his own personal ideology to the CCP where it will intertwine with China’s national agenda until at least 2035.[4] Often times Xi places himself at the front and center of the CCP’s campaigns as to not miss out on the praise and power. Essentially, for years Xi Jinping has been setting himself to serve as President of China for life using calculated political moves.

Xi’s ambition does not end there however. The President of China also wants to consolidate and tighten his grip on power and his Historical Resolution accelerates this process. Recently, he has requested absolute loyalty from all 95 million CCP members. All while pushing the CCP to reassert a dominate role in all aspects of Chinese society, while cracking down on the private sector.[5] Xi has been more confrontational both domestically and internationally during his reign and seeks more power to face such challenges. Experts believe that Xi will ride the momentum from the Historical Resolution into next year when he will ask for more power during a leadership reshuffle of the CCP.[6]

Lastly, Xi used his Historical Resolution as a platform to applaud his past successes and to cement his legacy. It states that under Xi, the CCP has, “solved many tough problems that were long on the agenda but never resolved, and accomplished many things that were wanted but never got done.”[7] So not only is he heavily praised but Xi becomes only the third Chinese leader to issue such a staggering resolution, along with Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong. This allows the Chinese people to remember Xi on the same level as past Presidential heroes.

The future is set up well for the potential lifelong President of China. China has beat out any regional rivals, is showing its economic dominance in the global political economy, and has a national agenda/national leadership plan for decades to come. The future of China is in the hands of Xi Jinping, and he knows it.


[1] Yip, Waiyee. “China’s Xi Jinping Cements His Status with Historic Resolution.” BBC News. BBC, November 12, 2021. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-59229935.

[2] Ibid.

[3] Lockwood, Pauline, and Yong Xiong. “Chinese Communist Party Passes Landmark Resolution Celebrating Leader Xi Jinping.” CNN. Cable News Network, November 11, 2021. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/11/asia/xi-jinping-ccp-resolution-intl/index.html.

[4] Shepherd, Christian. “China Passes History Resolution to Enshrine Open-Ended Rule of Xi Jinping.” The Washington Post. WP Company, November 11, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-plenum-xi-history/2021/11/11/4d7909ea-3e05-11ec-bd6f-da376f47304e_story.html.

[5] Lockwood, Pauline, and Yong Xiong. “Chinese Communist Party Passes Landmark Resolution Celebrating Leader Xi Jinping.” CNN. Cable News Network, November 11, 2021. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/11/asia/xi-jinping-ccp-resolution-intl/index.html.

[6] Shepherd, Christian. “China Passes History Resolution to Enshrine Open-Ended Rule of Xi Jinping.” The Washington Post. WP Company, November 11, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-plenum-xi-history/2021/11/11/4d7909ea-3e05-11ec-bd6f-da376f47304e_story.html.

[7] Lockwood, Pauline, and Yong Xiong. “Chinese Communist Party Passes Landmark Resolution Celebrating Leader Xi Jinping.” CNN. Cable News Network, November 11, 2021. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/11/asia/xi-jinping-ccp-resolution-intl/index.html.

Picture Attribute: www.kremlin.ru

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North Korea

North Korea Continues to Launch Missiles While Calling For an End of “Hostile Policies”

Just last decade the alarming news that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea had launched a missile test (ICBM or not) would send Washington into a frenzy and citizens of the world to their televisions. This September, however, North Korea conducted three separate missile tests and (at least in America) you would have had to have searched the news to find details of the launches. North Korea conducting missile tests has become such a common practice in their diplomatic strategy that the citizens of the world are developing an indifference to it. The ‘CNS North Korea Missile Test Database’ has recorded 156 missile tests from 1984 to March 2021 by North Korea.[1] Most recently, North Korea fired a short-range missile into the sea while it’s U.N. diplomat was decrying the U.S.’s “hostile policy” against his country. Mere days after Kim Jung Un’s sister Kim Yo Jung, a rising figure in North Korean politics, told Seoul her country was open to resuming talks and reconciliatory steps (if conditions were met).[2] These recent actions would be considered strange, erratic, or even unpredictable if directed by most governments, but for North Korea it is business as usual.

Promoting reconciliation, open to talking, accessible for aid, or any steps in the right direction toward de-escalation followed up by a missile test is North Korea’s modus operandi. It has been their long-term geopolitical strategy for decades and has gotten to the point where their unpredictability is becoming predictable. However, from Kim Jung Un’s viewpoint, his unpredictability, and the strength he shows with his missile tests has kept South Korea and the United States from attempting an invasion of his country. Ever since his grandfather Kim Il-Sung began investing in nuclear power the Kim family has bet big on nuclear and missile testing to dissuade foreign invaders. His father, Kim-Jung-Il continued such policies and Kim Jung Un himself continues that legacy to great success today. The more North Korea accomplishes with its nuclear and missile testing the more provoked the international community becomes which North Korea hopes to leverage in the future.

North Korea’s biggest long-term goal is well known and documented; to increase national security.[3] Clearly, developing nuclear and missile capabilities helps North Korea achieve their objective and they will continue to test missiles in the long term for that reason. Although, there may also be some short-term motives for the recent missile tests in September. First, North Korea choose to launch missiles into the sea the same week talks between the U.S., South Korea, and North Korea were rumored to start again. North Korea may have wanted to intimidate South Korea right before the talks to gain concessions. Similarly, North Korea may have hoped that it would push South Korea to try and persuade the U.S. to lift sanctions on North Korea. As an already sanctioned country North Korea did not have much to lose from the ploy and was able to flex its military muscles on South Korea before resuming talks.

Furthermore, domestic policy may have played a role in the decision to launch missile tests in late September. North Korea and its citizens have faced many internal challenges in 2021 and things may be getting bleaker. Chronically short of food, the North Korean people may be on the cusp of another famine as many citizens are starving. Recently, these starving citizens have been warned that if they steal food crops the North Korean army will shoot on sight. Additionally, the citizens of North Korea are facing a medicine shortage with no end in sight.[4] These problems are only exasperated by the lack of usual trade and aid from China. Due to the pandemic, Chinese and North Korean trade has been severely affected and the people of North Korea are suffering because of it. China must also be on its best behavior with North Korea as it does not want to draw the ire of the international community prior to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.[5] All these issues amount to intense internal pressure on Kim Jung Un whereas he must consolidate his power and strength. Launching and developing his country’s military capabilities not only distracts from the domestic matters but also aims to validate his position of power.

Short-term decisions and long-term policy continue to shape North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Leading to a world where missile tests are the norm, not the exception for Kim Jung Un and North Korea.


[1] Nuclear Threat Initiative. “The CNS North Korea Missile Test Database,” March 31, 2021. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/cns-north-korea-missile-test-database/.

[2] Kim, Hyung-Jin. “North Korea Launches Missile as Diplomat Decries US Policy.” Yahoo! News. Yahoo!, September 27, 2021. https://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-fires-projectile-sea-230129296.html.

[3] McEACHERN, PATRICK. “What Does North Korea Want?” American Foreign Service Association, October 2019. https://afsa.org/what-does-north-korea-want.

[4] Lee, Mgungchul, and Hyemin Son. “Amid Food Shortage, North Korea Orders Army to Shoot Crop Thieves on Sight.” Radio Free Asia, September 8, 2021. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/thieves-09082021164555.html.

[5] Sang-hun, Choe. “North Korea Sends Confusing Signals: Dialogue or Tension?” The New York Times. The New York Times, October 1, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/world/asia/north-korea-missile-launch.html.

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Kony 2012

Kony 2012: Whatever Happened to Joseph Kony and His Lord’s Resistance Army

Many children growing up in the early 2010’s were exposed to their first geopolitical issue by simply browsing Facebook, Twitter, or YouTube in March of 2012. They may not have been able to grasp the subtleties of the situation, but they understood an injustice was occurring and became first time activists without even knowing it. You could not escape the hashtags #stopkony or #kony2012 online, browse your social media without seeing a share, or hold a conversation with your friends without mentioning the name Joseph Kony. This of course was all due to the documentary Kony 2012, produced by Invisible Children, Inc., which has garnered over 100 million views and has been widely considered one of the most viral videos of all time. The younger generation became so involved that some were informing their parents on the situation. Delaware Senator Chris Coons admitted that his three pre-teen children had asked him what he was doing to stop the African warlord Joseph Kony.[1] Quickly, adults and children alike were all asking themselves that question and actions were being taken. However, eventually years passed, and it seems Joseph Kony was able to slip through the cracks despite his internet infamy.

Joseph Kony is a Ugandan warlord who founded the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) in 1987 and leads them to this day. The LRA has risen and shrunk throughout the years and has operated in Uganda, South Sudan, Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.[2] The ideology of the LRA is complicated but entails a form of radical Christianity mixed with nationalism and a veneration of Kony himself. The goal of the LRA was to overthrow the government of Uganda by any means necessary and place themselves in positions of governance.

Kony and his men have been documented as displacing millions from their homes, raping, torturing, and murdering anyone they get their hands on and generally committing war crimes as they please. Their reign of terror includes cannibalism, disfigurements, and brutality the likes of which humanity has rarely seen. However, what made Joseph Kony and his LRA so infamous was the use of child soldiers and child sex slaves. Young girls have been abducted to serve as sex slaves to the soldiers or given away as “gifts” to arms dealers in Sudan.[3] Additionally, young boys are kidnapped and brainwashed into becoming soldiers for the group. These young boys are then condemned to commit murder (and worse) and die for Joseph Kony on the front line of battle. Kony tells these boys that they will be invincible to bullets after he draws a cross on their chest with oil.[4] The film Kony 2012 claimed that the LRA had recruited over 30,000 child soldiers at up to that point in March of 2012.[5]

Even though Kony was indicted in 2005 for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC), he had so far successfully evaded capture and Kony 2012 hoped to help shed a light on him to the general public.[6] It was effective and Kony 2012 went viral overnight with polls suggesting that 59% of young Americans heard about Kony 2012 in the first few days of the films release.[7] The popularity of the film garnered support of the citizens of the world and governments were now listening. Shortly after the films release, 34 members of U.S. Congress introduced a bipartisan resolution to condemn Joseph Kony and the LRA and, “…for the U.S. effort to help regional forces pursue commanders of the militia group.”.[8] Additionally, the African Union increased its efforts to capture Joseph Kony by sending 5,000 troops after him with 100 American special forces advisors attached to the detail.[9]

In subsequent years that followed, Joesph Kony was still able to resist capture or death. Even with boots on the ground and air unit support from the United States. Even with President Barrack Obama offering a $5 million award.[10] Even with all the heat brought on by Kony 2012. It still was not enough. Luckily though, some of the measures did work though in demoralizing, disbanding, and dissuading his army. Once at a height of 3,000+ men, Kony could only count around 100 men in his army in April of 2017.[11] This limited their capability and impact of attacks and turned the LRA into a shell of its former self. This lead to both the United States and African countries no longer considered the LRA a threat at this point. Meaning the search for Kony was all but over and failed.

Fast forward to September 2021 and that failure still stands. Even with a vast majority of his army gone, and all his former commanders killed or captured, Kony remains at large. It is reported that he only commands a few dozen men, and they are dispersed between the Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, South Sudan and Sudan. According to LRA defectors, today the army’s main activities consist of, “…subsistence farming and sometimes selling honey at local markets.”, as they try to survive.[12] The frequency and ferocity of the LRA attacks on local populations have also slowed down. Crisis Tracker reports that the LRA has been involved in 25 attacks, 1 killing, and 55 abductions in the last 365 days.[13]

Today, the LRA does not pose a threat to any government but can be viewed as more of local criminal group fighting for its survival. Looting and stealing from the local populace to eat and drink enough to stay alive. The war to overthrow the Ugandan government is lost and Kony is struggling to hold on to what little he has left. Crisis tracker believes the aging warlord to be living in the contested enclave of Kafia Kingi where he tries to command his demoralized army.[14] It is unlikely that the LRA will be able to recruit or abduct as they once have and is more likely to continue to lose men this year. Morale is low, food is scarce, and leadership is lacking. Kony does not command the respect of his men anymore and their loyalty is waning. The best course of action is for local governments to continue playing defection messages for his men to hear to encourage them to leave the LRA. The warlord will live on for now – however, his ideology, his army, and his ability to cause harm will soon fade into the history books as his measured demise continues.


Featured Image: by William Murphy https://www.flickr.com/photos/infomatique/7103869103 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/

[1] Wong, Scott. “Kony Captures Congress’ Attention.” POLITICO, March 22, 2012. https://www.politico.com/story/2012/03/kony-captures-congress-attention-074355.

[2] National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. “Terrorist Organization Profile: LRA.” Terrorist Organization Profile. Accessed September 16, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20111022042344/http://www.start.umd.edu/start/data_collections/tops/terrorist_organization_profile.asp?id=3513.

[3] Ibid.

[4] Briggs, Jimmie, and Aryeh Neier. Innocents Lost When Child Soldiers Go to War. New York: Basic Books, 2005.

[5] Kony 2012. Invisible Children, Inc., 2012.

[6] McKay, Hollie. “Where Is Ugandan Warlord Joseph Kony?” Fox News. FOX News Network, February 19, 2020. https://www.foxnews.com/world/viral-vanish-what-happened-to-joseph-kony.

[7] Kanczula, Antonia. “Kony 2012 in Numbers.” The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, April 20, 2012. https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/apr/20/kony-2012-facts-numbers?newsfeed=true.

[8] Wong, Scott. “Kony Captures Congress’ Attention.” POLITICO, March 22, 2012. https://www.politico.com/story/2012/03/kony-captures-congress-attention-074355.

[9] “African Union Launches U.s.-Backed Force to Hunt Kony.” Reuters, March 24, 2012. https://web.archive.org/web/20120427192840/http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/24/us-southsudan-kony-idUSBRE82N08T20120324.

[10] Lee, Matthew. “US Offers $5 Million Bounty for Kony.” The Seattle Times. The Seattle Times Company, April 4, 2013. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/us-offers-5-million-bounty-for-kony/.

[11] Cooper, Helene. “A Mission to Capture or Kill Joseph Kony Ends, without Capturing or Killing.” The New York Times. The New York Times, May 15, 2017. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/15/world/africa/joseph-kony-mission-ends.html.

[12] Ronan, Paul, and Kristof Titeca. “Kony’s Rebels Remain a Threat, but They’re Also Selling Honey to Get By.” African Arguments , March 24, 2020. https://africanarguments.org/2020/03/joseph-kony-lra-rebels-threat-selling-honey/.

[13] “Crisis Tracker.” Crisis Tracker. Accessed September 17, 2021. https://crisistracker.org/.

[14] Ibid.

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GPS

The Use of GPS in The World’s First Space War and Today

Modern military combat operations were never the same after the successful application of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) by Coalition forces against Iraq’s military in 1991. GPS is a satellite-based radionavigation system and must be created, maintained, and upgraded all within the realm of space. The Gulf War is considered the world’s first space war since it utilized and relied heavily on the space-based GPS. GPS played a major role in the conflict and allowed Coalition forces to sweep through Iraq’s defenses at unprecedented speeds. GPS allowed for dominance on the battlefield in 1991, but can the technology keep up twenty years later?

Almost all Coalition military operations were supported by GPS during the Gulf War. Special Operators used it to operate effectively in enemy territory, artillery used it to target enemy positions, the Army utilized it to clear mine fields, the Navy received precise coordinates for its cruise missiles, the Air Force was able to operate in all weather, and so much more.[1] Coalition forces were able to move accurately in the endless desert, constantly remain in control, and successfully complete the envelopment maneuver to win the war. The U.S. Department of Defense sums up the efficiency of GPS in the Gulf War by stating, “The Global Positioning System allowed these and allied units to advance in a featureless desert at night, during inclement weather, and to engage Iraqi units with a lethal accuracy unknown to that point.”.[2]

Now, there were some slight hiccups implementing GPS for the first time on the battlefield. Receiver shortages, signal usages, establishing sets and terminal networks, linkage between field and command units, and familiarity with the new space equipment were all cause for concern prior to and during the first few days of battle.[3] However, these issues were all solved and ironed out eventually with GPS being hailed as an overall success on the battlefield.

To this day GPS is a vital cog in modern military machines and many would be lost without it. A few examples of modern GPS usage in the military include messaging, artillery support, aircraft tracking, guided bombs, surveying, long-range precision strikes from the sea, weather forecasting, drone surveillance, and terrain navigation. The U.S. military employs GPS in almost every operation from search and rescue missions to missile launches, reconnaissance and guiding unmanned systems.[4] Aside from its military applications, GPS has proven to be a civilian asset as well and has added $1.4 trillion dollars to the U.S. economy since the 1980’s.[5] DoD Chief Information Officer Dana Deasy stresses the importance of GPS stating, “We have a fundamental responsibility to protect GPS as it’s paramount to the safety of American citizens, as well as national and economic security.”.[6]

There is no doubt that GPS is vital to the U.S. and any other country with a modern military. Therefore, China, Russia, India, Japan, and the European Union have all developed their own form of GPS modeled after the U.S. However, the technology is not infallible and does pose problems for military leaders. Most notably, GPS can be jammed with something as simple as a cigarette lighter-powered electronic jammer you can purchase for $50.[7] Similarly, GPS does not work in all environments (dense forests, underground, underwater, etc.). So, you can imagine what a well-funded and organized military can do to another countries GPS signals in war. Additionally, with more satellites being launched into space every year it is starting to get crowded and space debris is becoming an issue. The United States DoD has even advocated loudly against allowing private U.S. based companies to create their own versions of GPS as it may interfere with their own and cause interference.[8]

Because of these issues, countries are always updating, innovating, and looking for solutions when it comes to GPS. For example, the U.S. has the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) continually researching and developing technological breakthroughs associated with GPS. Whereas, the Russian Federation has the Roscosmos State Corporation for Space Activities, who has significantly improved their satellite capabilities in the last few decades. Clearly, GPS will remain at the forefront of military operations in the short term. However, we will see if it can weather the issues currently facing it in today’s ever advancing world, or if it will be left behind for something new in the long term.


[1] Spires, David N. Beyond Horizons: A Half Century of Air Force Space Leadership. Peterson Air Force Base, CO: Air Force Space Command in association with Air University Press, 2011.

[2] “Protecting America’s Global Positioning System.” U.S. Department of Defense. Accessed September 8, 2021. https://www.defense.gov/explore/spotlight/protecting-gps/.

[3] Spires, David N. Beyond Horizons: A Half Century of Air Force Space Leadership. Peterson Air Force Base, CO: Air Force Space Command in association with Air University Press, 2011.

[4] “Protecting America’s Global Positioning System.” U.S. Department of Defense. Accessed September 8, 2021. https://www.defense.gov/explore/spotlight/protecting-gps/.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Keller, John. “GPS Jamming Is a Growing Threat to Satellite Navigation, Positioning, and Precision Timing.” Military and Aerospace Electronics, June 28, 2016. https://www.militaryaerospace.com/unmanned/article/16714759/gps-jamming-is-a-growing-threat-to-satellite-navigation-positioning-and-precision-timing.

[8] Sayler, Kelly, and John Hoehn. “DOD Concerns About the FCC-Approved Ligado Network.” Congressional Research Service, February 5, 2021. https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/IN11400.pdf.

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Cape Town

Why is China Investing so Heavily in Africa?

Chinese President Xi Jinping announced $80 billion in financial support to Africa as recently as 2018 as part of their grander plan in the region.[1] What that plan is exactly is less clear than it seems. Has China’s generous investments into Africa been purely economical or is there more incentive for them to help one of the fastest developing regions in the world?

Africa’s population has been booming for years now, with more and more citizens moving toward cities. This increase in urbanization is one reason why Africa is currently experiencing an industrialization the likes of the first industrial revolution. It is estimated that Africa’s economy will soon amount to over $5 trillion dollars.[2] Their emerging market is able to offer cheap labor, natural resources, and untapped potential for many sectors. No wonder the allure of Africa has called to China for over two decades as the rising superpower tries to diversify its economy. China can now boast of being Africa’s biggest trade partner and economic friend with over 10,000 Chinese businesses located within Africa.[3][4]

Now, although this partnership has been proven to be beneficial for both sides in some regards, Africa needs to tread lightly as China has aims that do not fit its own agenda. Aside from the fact that most African countries have a large trade deficit with China, as they export minerals and import Chinese manufactured goods.[5] These massive loans could prove to be unsustainable for the developing countries of Africa. Even though some of the money comes in the form of grants, large sums of it are expected to be paid back to China at some point. These loans, largely intended to help build Africa’s infrastructure, could be the foundation of debt traps whereas African countries would find themselves in holes almost impossible to get out of. Beijing already owns 15% of sub-Saharan Africa’s external debt with that number likely to increase.[6]

If the debt problems weren’t enough, Africa must also guard closely its natural resources as China targets their available reserves. Africa is home to at least 46% of the world’s supply of manganese (used to manufacture steel), 50% of the world’s cobalt, and have a large amount of coltan resources (used in electronics).[7] By financing Africa’s infrastructure and gaining inroads in these sectors China is constantly winning the rights to these precious resources. Cleary, African countries are willing to give the rights away to some of its natural resources in exchange for millions if not billions of dollars. But the question remains, where do you draw that line as you hope to develop those resources yourself someday.   Again, it bears repeating that Africa’s dealings with China can be very beneficial for both parties. Africa is an emerging market and if it spends the massive influxes of cash wisely, it will set up its economy for future success. This must be accomplished all while avoiding economic pit falls such as corruption, over borrowing, and poor investments. How much and how well the money is invested in Africa’s infrastructure and education will play a major role in the potential of their future economy. China knows it and is willing to foot the bill in the short term for long term strategic gains.


[1] AfricaNews. “China Promises $60 BN Aid to Africa as 2018 FOCAC Summit Opens.” Africanews. Africanews, September 3, 2018. https://www.africanews.com/2018/09/03/china-promises-60-bn-aid-to-africa-as-2018-focac-summit-opens/.

[2] Dezan Shira & Associates. “US$ 1 Billion Belt & Road Africa Fund Launched.” Silk Road Briefing, July 4, 2019. https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2019/07/04/us-1-billion-belt-road-africa-fund-launched/.

[3] Jayaram, Kartik, Omid Kassiri, and Irene Yuan Sun. “The Closest Look Yet at Chinese Economic Engagement in Africa.” McKinsey & Company. McKinsey & Company, April 1, 2020. https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/middle-east-and-africa/the-closest-look-yet-at-chinese-economic-engagement-in-africa.

[4] Brown, Heather. “Chinese Investment in Africa: New Model for Economic Development or Business as Usual?” DOC Research Institute, September 13, 2018. https://doc-research.org/2018/09/chinas-approach-to-africa/.

[5] Ibid.

[6] Ibid.

[7] Ibid.

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