Russian Invasion Forces in Ukraine Under New Leadership and Are Shifting Battle Plans

According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia has lost more than 19,300 soldiers, 722 tanks, 152 plans and thousands of other military vehicles and equipment since their nefarious invasion of Ukraine. These figures, coupled with a disappointing grasp of land objectives, paints a picture of Russian military failure the likes of which are embarrassing for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Something needed to change from the Russian perspective as we pass day 45 of the invasion and that change has come in the form of General Alexander Dvornikov. The man who is viewed as a national hero or a war criminal, depending on who you ask. Either way, Russia’s new commander will be looking to implement the tactics that made him famous in Syria to the Ukrainian invasion.

General Dvornikov was a Russian commander during Syria’s civil war, working closely with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help carry out widespread and indiscriminate bombardments of Syrian civilians, neighborhoods and hospitals. Reports estimate that over 25,000 Syrian civilians were murdered by Russian air strikes between 2015-2022 which General Dvornikov played an integral role in. Under General Dvornikov’s command, Russian forces in Syria were known for crushing dissent in part by destroying cities, lobbing artillery and dropping crudely made barrel bombs. For his service in Syria, he returned with honors and was claimed a “hero of the Russian Federation”.

It is probable that General Dvornikov will use some of the same scorched earth tactics in Ukraine that made him successful in Syria. This means residential areas and any infrastructure buildings will be ripe targets for air and ground bombardments. This is not good news for Ukrainian civilians who have already been displaced by the tens of millions, essentially creating a new migrant crisis for Europe. Additionally, more war crimes carried out by the Russian military can be expected as indiscriminate bombardments most likely will increase under Dvornikov’s command.

Fittingly, General Dvornikov was already in command of Russia’s South and Eastern forces in Ukraine before this promotion so his first step will be to consolidate the retreating Russian forces into his own armies. The Russian hope is that General Dvornikov can unify the Russian forces under a single command with a clear objective to increase morale, logistical planning, and overall battle effectiveness.

Along with General Dvornikov’s appointment, a new grand strategy is being implemented for the war in Ukraine. The Russian military has failed to conquer major cities in central Ukraine like Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy, and the Ukrainian government still stands strong. This is due to several factors, including: low soldier morale, logistical breakdowns, lack of leadership, and an underestimation of Ukraine and the West’s support. The result: Russian forces have now withdrawn to deploy to the Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and to execute a new battle plan.

The main military objective for Russia has likely shifted to try and complete control of the Donbas region. Donbas broadly refers to Ukraine’s Eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk which have been disputed for years. Controlling these areas helps Russia establish a land bridge between Crimea and Russia while giving their military a much-needed victory. Once Donbas is under control, Russia will be able to start planning a push West, deeper into Ukraine and will most likely try to encircle the Ukrainian army. Essentially, Russia must gain control of the East before pushing into Central Ukraine again.

For although Ukraine should be optimistic about the recent Russian retreat, it should start preparing for phase two of the war. A phase that is expected to bring with it a more organized brutality as Russia re-organizes in the East under new leadership.