One of the world’s most famous political philosophers once wrote that it is sometimes, “a very wise thing to simulate madness.”. That man was Niccolò Machiavelli and even though those words dried on the paper in the 16th century, the use of such political maneuvering is still practiced in modern international affairs. Using such tactics has benefited leaders throughout history. Could Russian President Vladmir Putin be following the footsteps of acting like a ‘madman’ to achieve his goals or has he quite literally lost his mind?
The Madman theory is when a leader acts so irrational and volatile that other leaders avoid confrontation because they fear provoking an unpredictable reaction from the ‘madman’. U.S. President Richard Nixon is the leader most commonly associated with the political theory. In his book, the President’s Chief of Staff, H.R. Haldeman, admitted that Nixon wanted the North Vietnamese to believe that he would do anything to stop the war in Vietnam and that he could not be controlled when he was angry. President Nixon let it slip that he was considering deploying nuclear weapons in Vietnam and shortly after the North Vietnamese came to the table to negotiate an end to the war. Some experts also assert that U.S. President Donald Trump utilized the madman theory in his foreign relations. For instance, during negotiations with South Korea, President Trump told his diplomats to portray him as a “crazy guy” who could pull out of the negotiations at any moment. An agreement was eventually reached, and the success or failure of the ploy is debated. Another international example of such gimmicks is when the leader of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s, Kim Jong-Un, launches nuclear weapons nonchalantly in defiance of the international community. Consequently, no invasion of North Korea has occurred under his leadership; almost validating his tactics. As the military strategist Herman Kahn described in his book, to, “look a little crazy” might be an effective way to persuade an adversary to stand down.
The madman theory has never been utilized or associated with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Up until the last week, experts and politicians have always seen Putin as a calculating, intelligent, and rational leader who always planned a few steps ahead. The invasion of Ukraine has brought to light a new side of Putin, one that makes the world a more dangerous place. Although some predicted that Russia would eventually try to take back the disputed regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, not many saw such a sudden invasion into the whole of Ukraine and a focus on their capital city, Kyiv. At the start of the invasion Putin gave a speech trying to justify his actions that showed an emotional man monologuing about past glory, made-up genocides, and a whole host of questionable statements. Seemingly out of touch, he would go on to ask the Ukrainian military to revolt against their own leaders, who he called Nazis and drug addicts who use their elderly as human shields. It has not just been his words that have raised eyebrows, but his actions as well. Most notably, he put Russia’s nuclear forces on alert for the first time in their history setting off alarm bells throughout the world. Such a swift change in personality raises the question of whether the Russian leader’s mental state is declining or if he is playing politics.
Why in this specific conflict would Putin use the madman political theory? Well, he understands that the entire West is essentially against him, and it may be one of the only cards he has to play to keep them at bay. If Putin portrays himself as an unpredictable maniac, then NATO, E.U., and whoever else would have to be wary of pushing him too far. This means that sanctions would have to be curtailed to an extent, military action restricted, and whatever happens he could not be placed into a corner. It would be foolish to force a maniac into a position with no escape and a finger on the world’s largest nuclear arsenal. Consequently, this gives Putin breathing room and leaves more options on the table to maneuver in this conflict. Likewise, if Putin is viewed as unpredictable, then it makes the West more cautious in any action they take. For example, NATO is much less likely to issue a no-fly zone in Ukraine if they cannot predict whether Russia will uphold such an issue, which would then further escalations. Lastly, employing the madman theory makes it more likely that Ukraine will negotiate a way out of the war, conceding land or power, just to appease the perceived lunatic. Putin may well have thought all this through and has been playing the part to perfection.
However, we can also not count out the terrifying idea that one of the world’s most powerful leaders mental state is quickly deteriorating. Vladmir Putin will turn 70 in October and to believe his mind is what it was when he was a KGB agent would be unwise. Rumors are spreading that the aging leader has isolated himself in the face of the pandemic and is now out of touch. Even worse, he may be surrounding himself with ‘yes men’ who do not demonstrate contrary views or opinions. Thus, leading to confirmation bias that just supports his already established beliefs and judgments. Advanced age, isolation, and a lack of dissension could be a recipe for a rapidly declining mental state.
It may be political maneuvering or Putin may just be losing his mind. Not even the experts can be sure at this point. The next few weeks will hopefully shine some light on Putin’s decision making. Whereas for now, we can only speculate and hope the consequences of Putin’s actions do not become even more dire.
Very interesting!
I am also questioning if Putin’s mental health has changed recently.