Just last decade the alarming news that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea had launched a missile test (ICBM or not) would send Washington into a frenzy and citizens of the world to their televisions. This September, however, North Korea conducted three separate missile tests and (at least in America) you would have had to have searched the news to find details of the launches. North Korea conducting missile tests has become such a common practice in their diplomatic strategy that the citizens of the world are developing an indifference to it. The ‘CNS North Korea Missile Test Database’ has recorded 156 missile tests from 1984 to March 2021 by North Korea.[1] Most recently, North Korea fired a short-range missile into the sea while it’s U.N. diplomat was decrying the U.S.’s “hostile policy” against his country. Mere days after Kim Jung Un’s sister Kim Yo Jung, a rising figure in North Korean politics, told Seoul her country was open to resuming talks and reconciliatory steps (if conditions were met).[2] These recent actions would be considered strange, erratic, or even unpredictable if directed by most governments, but for North Korea it is business as usual.
Promoting reconciliation, open to talking, accessible for aid, or any steps in the right direction toward de-escalation followed up by a missile test is North Korea’s modus operandi. It has been their long-term geopolitical strategy for decades and has gotten to the point where their unpredictability is becoming predictable. However, from Kim Jung Un’s viewpoint, his unpredictability, and the strength he shows with his missile tests has kept South Korea and the United States from attempting an invasion of his country. Ever since his grandfather Kim Il-Sung began investing in nuclear power the Kim family has bet big on nuclear and missile testing to dissuade foreign invaders. His father, Kim-Jung-Il continued such policies and Kim Jung Un himself continues that legacy to great success today. The more North Korea accomplishes with its nuclear and missile testing the more provoked the international community becomes which North Korea hopes to leverage in the future.
North Korea’s biggest long-term goal is well known and documented; to increase national security.[3] Clearly, developing nuclear and missile capabilities helps North Korea achieve their objective and they will continue to test missiles in the long term for that reason. Although, there may also be some short-term motives for the recent missile tests in September. First, North Korea choose to launch missiles into the sea the same week talks between the U.S., South Korea, and North Korea were rumored to start again. North Korea may have wanted to intimidate South Korea right before the talks to gain concessions. Similarly, North Korea may have hoped that it would push South Korea to try and persuade the U.S. to lift sanctions on North Korea. As an already sanctioned country North Korea did not have much to lose from the ploy and was able to flex its military muscles on South Korea before resuming talks.
Furthermore, domestic policy may have played a role in the decision to launch missile tests in late September. North Korea and its citizens have faced many internal challenges in 2021 and things may be getting bleaker. Chronically short of food, the North Korean people may be on the cusp of another famine as many citizens are starving. Recently, these starving citizens have been warned that if they steal food crops the North Korean army will shoot on sight. Additionally, the citizens of North Korea are facing a medicine shortage with no end in sight.[4] These problems are only exasperated by the lack of usual trade and aid from China. Due to the pandemic, Chinese and North Korean trade has been severely affected and the people of North Korea are suffering because of it. China must also be on its best behavior with North Korea as it does not want to draw the ire of the international community prior to the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.[5] All these issues amount to intense internal pressure on Kim Jung Un whereas he must consolidate his power and strength. Launching and developing his country’s military capabilities not only distracts from the domestic matters but also aims to validate his position of power.
Short-term decisions and long-term policy continue to shape North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Leading to a world where missile tests are the norm, not the exception for Kim Jung Un and North Korea.
[1] Nuclear Threat Initiative. “The CNS North Korea Missile Test Database,” March 31, 2021. https://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/cns-north-korea-missile-test-database/.
[2] Kim, Hyung-Jin. “North Korea Launches Missile as Diplomat Decries US Policy.” Yahoo! News. Yahoo!, September 27, 2021. https://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-fires-projectile-sea-230129296.html.
[3] McEACHERN, PATRICK. “What Does North Korea Want?” American Foreign Service Association, October 2019. https://afsa.org/what-does-north-korea-want.
[4] Lee, Mgungchul, and Hyemin Son. “Amid Food Shortage, North Korea Orders Army to Shoot Crop Thieves on Sight.” Radio Free Asia, September 8, 2021. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/korea/thieves-09082021164555.html.
[5] Sang-hun, Choe. “North Korea Sends Confusing Signals: Dialogue or Tension?” The New York Times. The New York Times, October 1, 2021. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/01/world/asia/north-korea-missile-launch.html.